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Preventing War in Korea:

Lessons from the Iran Nuclear Deal

The possibility of war in Korea presents the greatest danger of nuclear war since the Cuba Missile Crisis.  The danger is compounded by the fact that both North Korea and our own country currently are headed by erratic and potentially irrational leaders.

Despite clear differences in the two situations, there are lessons from successfully negotiating the Iran Nuclear Deal that can provide guidance for what we need to do related to North Korea.  Here are six lessons:

First - Just as urgency to keep Iran from developing nuclear weapons provided impetus for negotiating a deal, so dangers of war on the Korean Peninsula provide urgency for resolving this crisis by diplomacy.

·        In 1950-53 the Korean War, memorialized in David Halberstam’s book, The Coldest Winter, caused 4 million deaths. And the war never ended. Estimates of how many would die in war in Korea today range from tens of thousands to millions, if nuclear weapons are employed, which then also would risk worldwide nuclear war.

·        Experts agree that a preemptive U.S. attack on N. Korea would have unpredictable but likely catastrophic consequences. Congress should act immediately to prevent President Trump from starting a war without congressional authorization, by supporting H.R.4140/S.2016 and S 2047.

Second - Remembering history accurately is essential, and not something we Americans are good at doing.

·        Our tendency to see the world as “good vs. evil” (and, of course, we are “the good”) leads to dangerous misunderstanding and unrealistic policies. In his 2002 State of the Union address George W. Bush ignorantly and dangerously declared “Iran, Iraq and North Korea the “axis of evil.”

·        In relation to Iran, most Americans bitterly remember the hostage crisis of 1979-80, but tend to forget that in 1953 the U.S. orchestrated the overthrow of the elected Iranian government of Mohammad Mossadegh and in 1988 we shot down an Iranian passenger plane killing 300 people.

·        In relation to North Korea, Kim Jong-Un’s and Donald Trump’s wild rhetorical threats are scary news, but news media mostly fail to remind us that in 1950 President Truman publicly threatened to use nuclear weapons against the North, and that the US introduced nuclear weapons into South Korea in1958, apparently violating the Armistice and ignoring the warnings of our allies. That was fifty years before the North developed its own nuclear weapons. Remembering this history is essential to understanding North Korea’s fears of us

Third - Both unilateral and multilateral communications are important.

·        We learned from the Cuban Missile crisis and from the Iran negotiations that one on one communication between leaders is very helpful and that having a direct “hotline” is vitally important in a crisis.. The US needs a hotline with North Korea.  (Frankly, I’d prefer if Secretary Tillerson or Mattes were on our end of the hotline.)

·        Multi-lateral negotiations P5+1 (Five Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany, with the U.S. delegation headed by a woman, Wendy Sherman) were key to achieving the Iran Nuclear Deal.

·        Six-Party talks involving China, N. Korea, Japan, S. Korea, Russia and the US succeeded in reaching agreement in 1994 that delayed N. Korea’s weapons program for a decade. After that agreement broke down, neither side pursued new talks with sufficient creativity and determination. Negotiations involving all these parties are needed again now, aimed at reducing the immediate threat of war and, in the longer run, aimed at finally ending the Korean War and achieving permanent peace.

Fourth – Popular Movements and People-to-People Diplomacy Can Help Push Governments Toward Peace

·        Growing international momentum to abolish nuclear weapons, including the July 7, 2017 UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), awarded the Nobel Peace Prize this year, and Pope Francis’ recent declaration condemning not only the use, but possession of nuclear weapons provide powerful positive pressure for resolving the Korea crisis.

·        The most dramatic and important people to people initiative in relation to Korea is “Women Cross DMZ,” endorsed by the National Councils of Women of both South and North Korea, urging a three point program:

“A freeze on North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile program in exchange for a US security guarantee and suspension of US-S. Korea joint military exercises; start of a peace process, including significant involvement by women, to end the Korean war; and a liaison office in Washington and Pyongyang to heal legacies of the war, including retrieving remains of soldiers killed in the war and helping reunite Korean families.”

·        South Korea’s newly elected President Moon Jae-In who favors pursuing talks with the North makes the women’s initiative even more relevant and timely. The U.S. should more actively seek President Moon’s advice.

Fifth - Sanctions can serve a useful role by increasing pressure for reaching a resolution, but without diplomatic efforts and negotiations, sanctions will not be sufficient.

·        Sanctions were useful in pressing for a deal with Iran, but clearly it was the serious give and take of multilateral negotiations that produced the agreement.

·        Rather than trying to pressure China to increase sanctions on North Korea, the U.S. needs to cooperate with China, and with South Korea, Japan and Russia to develop a common strategy for multilateral negotiations.

Sixth - Effective serious negotiations require both parties to give as well as get and “the gives” and “the gets” have be perceived as being equivalent.

• It is totally unrealistic to expect N. Korea to agree to the US ultimate goal as a precondition for negotiations. Indeed, it seems negotiations have to begin realistically acknowledging N. Korea already possesses nuclear weapons.
•  Some version of “Freeze for freeze,” as in China’s view or the Women’s Call makes sense and is a more realistic goal.

·    Negotiations to reduce tensions and prevent war should be combinedwwith developing a process aimed at the longer term goal of ending the war and achieving peace and normalization on the Korean Peninsula.

*A Hopeful Scenario Involving the Iran Nuclear Deal, North  Korea and Israeli-Palestinian Peace.  Preserving the Iran Nuclear Deal is essential both for what it accomplishes related to Iran and as an example to encourage a negotiated resolution of the crisis with North Korea. President Trump has promised to kill the Iran Deal, in part because of Iran’s support of threats to Israel from Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, though these issues were never part of negotiations with Iran. Killing the Iran Deal would very likely kill the prospect of negotiating a deal with North Korea.

President Trump also has promised to achieve the "unltimate deal" between Israel  and the Palestinians. If there is progress toward Israeli-Palestinian peace in the form of a mutually acceptable two-state solution with peace and security for both peoples; and the U.S. positively builds on accepting West Jerusalem as the Capital of Israel by announcing it will accept East Jerusalem as the Capital of Palestine, this would have significant positive effects in the region and on Iran. It would strengthen President Rouhani and moderate elements in Iran and very likely lead to Iran supporting the peace agreement and ending support for threats against Israel. That, in turn, would contribute to preserving the Iran Nuclear Deal and encourage a diplomatic deal with North Korea.

December 2017